August 22, 2026:
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been going on for 12 years so far. Currently, Ukraine is winning the war while also creating a thriving military drone industry, with more than 200 manufacturers. Among the drone models being built for the Ukrainian military are the Bird, priced at $69,200 each. Swan X50, $24,200; BPA Gara Esse U, $548,000; Khaba Bomber, 300 km, $9,200; and dozens of other models, including the ubiquitous quadcopter battlefield drones, that account for 80 percent of Russian casualties. In some battles, Russian soldiers trying to maneuver under a swarm of drones were wounded within 30 minutes. The surviving Russians crawled away and sought whatever cover they could until Russian drones arrived to disrupt the Ukrainian attacks.
Current sales of these enterprises exceed a billion dollars annually and are increasing rapidly. Ukraine is the world's foremost drone designer, innovator, and manufacturer. China has supplied many drone components after years of restricting exports to Ukraine. Other suppliers have emerged, and China now competes with these Western suppliers to maintain its share of the Ukrainian market. China is still supplying Russia, but is still advising Russia to end the war if they want to halt the damage to its economy.
Ukraine's GDP is $138 billion, compared with Russia's $2.6 trillion. While Russia's GDP is larger, as it has been since Russia and Ukraine emerged from the wreckage of the Soviet Union, Ukraine is in a much better position for growth. Ukraine is using more ground drones, and that has reduced Ukrainian casualties to the point that for every Ukrainian soldier killed, eight Russians die. And then there is the growing use of long-range drones to damage the Russian economy. Oil storage facilities, refineries, military manufacturing operations and much else are targets. This includes a growing number of Wildberries warehouses. This is the Russian version of Amazon, with interesting military uses mostly tied to corruption, and Wildberries losses bring the war home to millions of Russian civilian consumers. Civilians in several major Russian cities are also witnessing Ukrainian air strikes on nearby military facilities. Russians ask, if we are winning the war, how is all this happening?
The corrupt military uses many variations of theft and the sale of military equipment, notably the ancient supply-sergeant thefts of military uniforms, equipment, and personal weapons supposedly issued to new recruits. They used to offer those only to individual recruits or their families willing to pay, and to republics or local governments willing to pay and provide them to recruits. Then Wildberries appeared as an ideal intermediary for such transactions. Apparently higher-value items are sold there as well.
Russia has suffered the greatest losses in personnel and equipment; it cannot win in any real sense and is scrambling to use remaining Russian resources to make it appear Russia is still in the war. The crippled Russian economy, along with rising unemployment and prices, has led more Russians to talk about another 1917. That ended centuries of Russian Czarist rule, which ended during a civil war that the Communists won. The Soviet Union lasted until 1991, when it collapsed after going bankrupt and split into 14 republics, including the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Russian leader Vladimir Putin thought he could restore the Soviet Union, and his first conquest would be Ukraine.